Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly round-up of top international news. The week has certainly been action-packed with the Trump-Putin Summit in Alaska followed by the Trump-Zelensky & European leaders’ Summit in Washington. In addition, we are covering Israel’s new operation against Gaza City, the new dynamics of India-China ties, the emerging China-Pakistan-Afghanistan nexus, and Ranil Wickremesinghe ’s arrest in Sri Lanka. So let’s get to it.
Zelenkyy’s second White House visit: Following the Trump-Putin meet in Alaska, Zelenskyy met Trump at the White House. After the February fiasco where the Zelenskyy-Trump White House meet had devolved into an ugly shouting match, the conversation this time was far more pleasant. Trump welcomed Zelenskyy by complimenting his suit, Zelenskyy last time had worn his military fatigue that had clearly triggered Trump and his coterie, and both of them had a pleasant session with the press. Interestingly, in contrast to last time, US Vice-President JD Vance was just part of the furniture in the latest meet. He is the one who had gone off on Zelenskyy in February, accusing him of not being thankful enough.
To his credit, Zelenskyy too changed his tactic this time. He profusely thanked Trump for his efforts to diplomatically resolve the Russia-Ukraine war. It also helped that several European leaders were also present this time to back him up. The united European front created the right optics for the occasion, and Zelenskyy was able to put forth Ukraine’s case for solid security guarantees to stop the war. Not only European leaders supported him on this point, but the US too signalled openness to being part of the security guarantees, although in a minor, supervisory role.
But the big takeout of the meetings was the concurrence on arranging a bilateral summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to be followed by a trilateral between them and Trump. In fact, Trump reportedly called Putin in the middle of the White House meet to push this idea. However, since then, Moscow has been citing multiple conditions and excuses to slip out of a Zelenskyy-Putin summit. First, it said a prospective meeting could be held in Moscow, a non-starter. It then said negotiations could only happen after Ukraine addresses Russia’s “root concerns” and the rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine- a total red herring. It further pitched for lower-level dialogue before a meeting between the leaders – three rounds have already taken place in Istanbul with the only result being exchange of PoWs.
It’s quite apparent that Putin doesn’t want to meet Zelenskyy. He doesn’t want to meet the man who he refused to take seriously, but who went on to lead his people in heroic defence of their country against Russian aggression. In Putin’s mind a meeting would establish Zelenskyy as his equal. Plus, Putin needs to show a victory. And for all the men he has sacrificed so far, he could only gain 1% of Ukrainian territory since November 2022. Plus, latest British intelligence reports show that it would take Russia at least four years to occupy the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson at current rate.
So Putin is trying to conjure a win with Trump’s help by making outrageous demands like Ukraine handing over the parts of Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson that Kyiv still holds. The truth is, Putin can’t negotiate. He has no interest in doing so unless he can show a big victory – which isn’t happening. Ukrainians always knew Putin won’t negotiate. But it remains to be seen if Trump will wake up to this fact.
Israel’s bid to take over Gaza City: In what can only be described as a catastrophic move, Israel has begun military operations to take over Gaza City with its 1mn residents. Tel Aviv approved the operation which it said will lead to the defeat of Hamas. But the more likely outcome is absolute hell for Palestinian civilians who have already gone through unimaginable suffering over the last two years of the conflict. In fact, the Israeli IDF already occupies 75% of Gaza, having reduced much of the Palestinian enclave to rubble. Gaza City is one of the last islands of habitation. If Israel tries to capture it, there will be rivers of blood of Palestinian civilians who have already been reduced to subhuman conditions. Mass starvation deaths – including those of children – are being reported from Gaza everyday, thanks to Israel’s restrictions on aid going into the enclave. Palestinians are trapped in hell with the Israeli military operations leading to mass collateral damage. Given this scenario, one wonders if the Gaza City operation is meant to defeat Hamas or permanently occupy Gaza.
Of course, all of this is happening with the blessing of the US. Netanyahu seems to have been given a free hand by Trump. Nor are the Arab states bothered much. The leaders of these countries, while professing to care about the plight of Palestinians, secretly wish that Israel eradicates the Palestine issue once and for all. For, the Palestine issue is a lightning rod for discourse on the Arab street. It is the one issue that animates Arabs across West Asia. It is the one issue that could see ordinary Arabs risk their lives and rise up. And this poses and direct threat to the Arab leaders, who have long been wary of the Muslim Brotherhood – of which Hamas is a part – and the Palestine movement itself given their history with the PLO. They had only supported the Palestine cause over the years for strategic reasons. Now, they would much rather make peace with Israel and obtain defence and technological cooperation.
The US is also happy allowing Israel to do what it wants in exchange for getting Tel Aviv to further Washington’s strategic interests in the region at the expense of Russia. We have already seen this in Syria, Lebanon and Iran. So the bottomline is no country or world leader is willing to really stand up for Palestinian civilians instead of providing mere lip service.
India-China friendship? Or something like it?: The week saw Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi come calling to New Delhi. The visit was congruent with recent parleys between India and China, which many have described as a thawing of relations. However, it is more likely to be a tactical meeting of interests on the part of New Delhi and Beijing. Recall that the two sides decided to lower temperatures at the Kazan meet between Modi and Xi in October last year. That was with a view to a possible Trump presidency and the uncertainties it would bring. Those uncertainties have unfolded over the last seven months with Trump’s tariff war. And India is getting a raw deal with the 25% secondary tariff for purchasing Russian crude – something that was actually encouraged by the previous Biden administration to stabilise global oil prices. Plus, most of this oil was paid for in rupees, restricting Moscow’s ability to divert this money for its war machinery against Ukraine.
So, tactically, India in recent weeks has made a public demonstration of parleying with Russia and China to assert its strategic autonomy. That said, the India-China relationship continues to be affected by complications. While China has finally lifted restrictions on export of rare earth magnets, fertilisers and tunnel boring machines, it wants India to renew Chinese FDI through the automatic route. That is contentious territory. Second, there is a plethora of problems that bedevils the relationship. The LAC is the big one with the Indian army and the Chinese PLA still forward deployed in large numbers with heavy weapons. Meanwhile, the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama is a huge point of contention. As is India’s relationship with Taiwan that China claims. In fact, in the Chinese readout of Wang Yi’s conversation with Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar, the latter was quoted as saying that Taiwan was part of China. However, when asked to clarify, New Delhi said there was no change in its ties with Taipei. After all, India and Taiwan are looking forward to collaboration in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors. This is also a great time to actualise an India-Taiwan free trade agreement along the lines of the India-UK FTA.
Thus, all these rough edges remain in the India-China relationship. And Beijing has no real intention of resolving many of them, like the LAC, because this strategically suits it. Add to this China’s rock-solid cooperation with Pakistan, particularly the Pakistani military. Therefore, New Delhi and Beijing appear to be flirting in the grey zone- not quite friends, not quite rivals, for the moment.
China-Afghanistan-Pakistan: Following Wang Yi’s trip to India, he made his way to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The itinerary did raise eyebrows. But what should concern New Delhi more is Beijing’s attempts to play peacemaker between Kabul and Islamabad, and extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan. If successful, this will increase China’s strategic-economic footprint in an arc running from Bangladesh and Nepal through Pakistan to Afghanistan and Iran. This northern China-sponsored wall practically cuts off India’s northern route to Central Asia and smothers it along its periphery.
This again shows that China is trying to contain India through a carrot and stick approach, and creating a regional fait accompli for New Delhi. Thus, India should be very careful even as it tries to reset ties with Beijing.
Wickremesinghe arrested: Former Sri Lankan president Ranil Wickremesinghe was arrested for alleged misuse of government funds, becoming the first former head of state in Sri Lanka to be taken into custody. Wickremesinghe is accused of attending his wife’s graduation ceremony in the UK in 2023 at the state’s expense. At the time Wickremesinghe was returning from an official tour to the US but made a stopover in the UK for the private visit. This sounds like a very South Asian thing to do, and would normally go unnoticed. However, over the last few years, Sri Lanka has been trying to take action against corruption, even involving those in the highest offices in the country. The 2022 Aragalaya protests blamed the politicians for mismanaging the country’s economy while themselves indulging in graft, profiteering and living a life of luxury. Wickremesinghe is a veteran politician. While his arrest does signal an anti-corruption drive, it’s also true that he is not the most powerful politician in Sri Lanka today. There are bigger fish with far greater money and muscle power. It remains to be seen if Sri Lankan authorities will also go after them.
Zelenkyy’s second White House visit: Following the Trump-Putin meet in Alaska, Zelenskyy met Trump at the White House. After the February fiasco where the Zelenskyy-Trump White House meet had devolved into an ugly shouting match, the conversation this time was far more pleasant. Trump welcomed Zelenskyy by complimenting his suit, Zelenskyy last time had worn his military fatigue that had clearly triggered Trump and his coterie, and both of them had a pleasant session with the press. Interestingly, in contrast to last time, US Vice-President JD Vance was just part of the furniture in the latest meet. He is the one who had gone off on Zelenskyy in February, accusing him of not being thankful enough.
To his credit, Zelenskyy too changed his tactic this time. He profusely thanked Trump for his efforts to diplomatically resolve the Russia-Ukraine war. It also helped that several European leaders were also present this time to back him up. The united European front created the right optics for the occasion, and Zelenskyy was able to put forth Ukraine’s case for solid security guarantees to stop the war. Not only European leaders supported him on this point, but the US too signalled openness to being part of the security guarantees, although in a minor, supervisory role.
But the big takeout of the meetings was the concurrence on arranging a bilateral summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to be followed by a trilateral between them and Trump. In fact, Trump reportedly called Putin in the middle of the White House meet to push this idea. However, since then, Moscow has been citing multiple conditions and excuses to slip out of a Zelenskyy-Putin summit. First, it said a prospective meeting could be held in Moscow, a non-starter. It then said negotiations could only happen after Ukraine addresses Russia’s “root concerns” and the rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine- a total red herring. It further pitched for lower-level dialogue before a meeting between the leaders – three rounds have already taken place in Istanbul with the only result being exchange of PoWs.
It’s quite apparent that Putin doesn’t want to meet Zelenskyy. He doesn’t want to meet the man who he refused to take seriously, but who went on to lead his people in heroic defence of their country against Russian aggression. In Putin’s mind a meeting would establish Zelenskyy as his equal. Plus, Putin needs to show a victory. And for all the men he has sacrificed so far, he could only gain 1% of Ukrainian territory since November 2022. Plus, latest British intelligence reports show that it would take Russia at least four years to occupy the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson at current rate.
So Putin is trying to conjure a win with Trump’s help by making outrageous demands like Ukraine handing over the parts of Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson that Kyiv still holds. The truth is, Putin can’t negotiate. He has no interest in doing so unless he can show a big victory – which isn’t happening. Ukrainians always knew Putin won’t negotiate. But it remains to be seen if Trump will wake up to this fact.
Israel’s bid to take over Gaza City: In what can only be described as a catastrophic move, Israel has begun military operations to take over Gaza City with its 1mn residents. Tel Aviv approved the operation which it said will lead to the defeat of Hamas. But the more likely outcome is absolute hell for Palestinian civilians who have already gone through unimaginable suffering over the last two years of the conflict. In fact, the Israeli IDF already occupies 75% of Gaza, having reduced much of the Palestinian enclave to rubble. Gaza City is one of the last islands of habitation. If Israel tries to capture it, there will be rivers of blood of Palestinian civilians who have already been reduced to subhuman conditions. Mass starvation deaths – including those of children – are being reported from Gaza everyday, thanks to Israel’s restrictions on aid going into the enclave. Palestinians are trapped in hell with the Israeli military operations leading to mass collateral damage. Given this scenario, one wonders if the Gaza City operation is meant to defeat Hamas or permanently occupy Gaza.
Of course, all of this is happening with the blessing of the US. Netanyahu seems to have been given a free hand by Trump. Nor are the Arab states bothered much. The leaders of these countries, while professing to care about the plight of Palestinians, secretly wish that Israel eradicates the Palestine issue once and for all. For, the Palestine issue is a lightning rod for discourse on the Arab street. It is the one issue that animates Arabs across West Asia. It is the one issue that could see ordinary Arabs risk their lives and rise up. And this poses and direct threat to the Arab leaders, who have long been wary of the Muslim Brotherhood – of which Hamas is a part – and the Palestine movement itself given their history with the PLO. They had only supported the Palestine cause over the years for strategic reasons. Now, they would much rather make peace with Israel and obtain defence and technological cooperation.
The US is also happy allowing Israel to do what it wants in exchange for getting Tel Aviv to further Washington’s strategic interests in the region at the expense of Russia. We have already seen this in Syria, Lebanon and Iran. So the bottomline is no country or world leader is willing to really stand up for Palestinian civilians instead of providing mere lip service.
India-China friendship? Or something like it?: The week saw Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi come calling to New Delhi. The visit was congruent with recent parleys between India and China, which many have described as a thawing of relations. However, it is more likely to be a tactical meeting of interests on the part of New Delhi and Beijing. Recall that the two sides decided to lower temperatures at the Kazan meet between Modi and Xi in October last year. That was with a view to a possible Trump presidency and the uncertainties it would bring. Those uncertainties have unfolded over the last seven months with Trump’s tariff war. And India is getting a raw deal with the 25% secondary tariff for purchasing Russian crude – something that was actually encouraged by the previous Biden administration to stabilise global oil prices. Plus, most of this oil was paid for in rupees, restricting Moscow’s ability to divert this money for its war machinery against Ukraine.
So, tactically, India in recent weeks has made a public demonstration of parleying with Russia and China to assert its strategic autonomy. That said, the India-China relationship continues to be affected by complications. While China has finally lifted restrictions on export of rare earth magnets, fertilisers and tunnel boring machines, it wants India to renew Chinese FDI through the automatic route. That is contentious territory. Second, there is a plethora of problems that bedevils the relationship. The LAC is the big one with the Indian army and the Chinese PLA still forward deployed in large numbers with heavy weapons. Meanwhile, the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama is a huge point of contention. As is India’s relationship with Taiwan that China claims. In fact, in the Chinese readout of Wang Yi’s conversation with Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar, the latter was quoted as saying that Taiwan was part of China. However, when asked to clarify, New Delhi said there was no change in its ties with Taipei. After all, India and Taiwan are looking forward to collaboration in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors. This is also a great time to actualise an India-Taiwan free trade agreement along the lines of the India-UK FTA.
Thus, all these rough edges remain in the India-China relationship. And Beijing has no real intention of resolving many of them, like the LAC, because this strategically suits it. Add to this China’s rock-solid cooperation with Pakistan, particularly the Pakistani military. Therefore, New Delhi and Beijing appear to be flirting in the grey zone- not quite friends, not quite rivals, for the moment.
China-Afghanistan-Pakistan: Following Wang Yi’s trip to India, he made his way to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The itinerary did raise eyebrows. But what should concern New Delhi more is Beijing’s attempts to play peacemaker between Kabul and Islamabad, and extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan. If successful, this will increase China’s strategic-economic footprint in an arc running from Bangladesh and Nepal through Pakistan to Afghanistan and Iran. This northern China-sponsored wall practically cuts off India’s northern route to Central Asia and smothers it along its periphery.
This again shows that China is trying to contain India through a carrot and stick approach, and creating a regional fait accompli for New Delhi. Thus, India should be very careful even as it tries to reset ties with Beijing.
Wickremesinghe arrested: Former Sri Lankan president Ranil Wickremesinghe was arrested for alleged misuse of government funds, becoming the first former head of state in Sri Lanka to be taken into custody. Wickremesinghe is accused of attending his wife’s graduation ceremony in the UK in 2023 at the state’s expense. At the time Wickremesinghe was returning from an official tour to the US but made a stopover in the UK for the private visit. This sounds like a very South Asian thing to do, and would normally go unnoticed. However, over the last few years, Sri Lanka has been trying to take action against corruption, even involving those in the highest offices in the country. The 2022 Aragalaya protests blamed the politicians for mismanaging the country’s economy while themselves indulging in graft, profiteering and living a life of luxury. Wickremesinghe is a veteran politician. While his arrest does signal an anti-corruption drive, it’s also true that he is not the most powerful politician in Sri Lanka today. There are bigger fish with far greater money and muscle power. It remains to be seen if Sri Lankan authorities will also go after them.
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